2005/02/09

My view on the Iranian people vs their government

Essentially, I see the Iranian people's atitudes towards their own government through the "lens" or "filter" of my early readings on the Ukrainians of the Eastern Front in World War II. Naturally, the Iranian people have not suffered brutality from their government on anywhere near the scale that the Ukrainians suffered under "collectivization" under Joseph Stalin in the 1930s and Iranian suffering under American occupation will most likely not be as bad as the Ukrainians underwent when they were under the German occupation of 1941-1944.

Nevertheless, when people speak of the Iranian desire for liberation or the Iranian patriotism vs possible American attack, I think of the Ukrainians. My understanding based on the few sources I've looked at is that the Ukrainians were pleased when the Soviets were kicked off of their land and felt at first that they had been liberated. Very quickly, the Nazis made it clear that they had no interest in pursuing a military/political alliance with the Ukraine and, what was even more distressing, the Nazis had no interest in disbanding the hated communes and allowing free enterprise to flourish on the farms.

Very quickly, the Ukrainians became "partisans" and undertook a guerrilla war against the occupiers. I seriously doubt that the Soviets had much control over this "underground". My guess is that the partisans operated independently, perhaps accepting directions from other Ukrainians or perhaps listening to Soviets when the Soviets presented themselves, not as communists or even as Russians, but as lovers of the land and of Eastern traditions and haters of the Nazi occupiers.

When the tide of the war turned, Ukrainians were largely fighting on the side of the Soviets on a "The devil you know versus the devil you don't" basis.

My understanding is that if the Americans invade Iran, Iranians are not all that wild about their government, but their lack of enthusiasm about their goverment will NOT translate into enthusiasm for American occupation. Iranians are of course fully aware of the complete mess that Americans have made of Iraq, the lack of power, water, personal safety, etc.

Is it all possible that the US might foment revolution there against the will of the government? No. America, back during the struggle against the Sandinistas of Nicaragua were completely unable to spark disturbances in the heavily-populated Pacific Coast region of that country, despite the Nicaraguan Contras being perhaps the most well-funded, lavishly supplied guerrillas in world history up to that time. The Contras were able to make incursions into the sparsely-populated North-Eastern part of the country, but by the mid-1980s they couldn't even do that.

UPDATE: Seems Condi Rice is champing at the bit to invade Iran.

Iran The EU asked Condi to join them in seeking a diplomatic solution to the Iran nuclear crisis. Condi declined, saying that the US is is actively seeking “rĂ©gime change” but did not mention how the US would go about achieving this.


Gee, I wonder how they'd do that? Amazingly enough, France and Germany resisted Dr Rice's attempts to persuade them to contribute troops to the American disaster in Iraq.




No comments: