Not a photo-essay

 

Because no one’s having any demonstrations anytime soon, can’t add photos of one.

This TPM piece documents a lot of what Trump is doing today and most of it follows a theme of the new Trump team is using wildly improper criteria to attack political opponents. As I was in the Navy for around a decade (PN3, USN, 1991-2001), I’ll comment on the attempt to prosecute military people for the withdrawal from Afghanistan.

After World War II, the Allies held the Nuremberg Tribunals for members of the Nazi Wehrmacht. They established an international law that certain orders were illegal. For the military person to say “I was just following orders” simply isn’t a legitimate excuse. Even if our Commander-in-Chief or Chairman of the Joint Chiefs tells a Seaman Recruit or a Private to commit a war crime and the war crime is then committed, the Sailor or Soldier can be prosecuted for having followed an illegal order.

Were any illegal orders given from either President Trump or from President Biden concerning the 2021 withdrawal from Afghanistan? Right now, Trump’s people are deciding whether or not to create

a commission to investigate the 2021 withdrawal from Afghanistan, including gathering information about who was directly involved in the decision-making for the military, how it was carried out and whether the military leaders could be eligible for charges as serious as treason,

But if no one in the military was given an illegal order, it’s difficult to see how anyone could be prosecuted. If the military simply did as either president instructed them to and none of the orders given were abusive towards civilians or prisoners and if no illegal armaments, such as poison gas, were ordered to be used, it’s difficult to see how any prosecution could proceed.

If the withdrawal from Afghanistan was presidential policy, which I believe it was, then that was not something that military people of any rank had any say over.

Let’s say a Major General (two stars) ordered his division (three brigades) to attack and one of the Colonels (in charge of one of the brigades) decided “Nah, it isn’t the right time to attack, the Major General is wrong,” then the Colonel would quite properly be court-martialed for insubordination. The Colonel can’t claim that “I was given an illegal order” because the action ordered falls under standard, everyday, expected actions.

What Trump’s people are trying to do is to prosecute military people for following the instructions of their Commander-in-Chief, for following legitimate, legal orders.

It’s difficult for me to see any legitimate reason to do this. Unfortunately, this is not the only example of overreach cited in the TPM piece.

Rally for Citizens of Gaza 27Sep2024

 

The Fridays at Fettermans crowd assembles again, as they have for about the past year.

Next rally at Senator Fetterman's office (200 Chestnut Street, Philadelphia 12:15 PM to 1:30 PM) will feature speeches by Medea Benjamin of Code Pink, Aly Halpert, Singer-Songwriter; George Lakey, Quaker Activist & Author; Shane Claiborne, Red Letter Christians; Lisa Sharon Harper, Freedom Road; Lewis Webb, Jr., American Friends Service Committee; Rachel Betesh, Poet. This will mark the one-year anniversay of the war in Gaza. 

 

Terry Rumsey, organizer of the rallies that have continued non-stop for the past year.

It's been a bit tough to keep writing about Gaza as it's just been more and more bad news for its residents. It's been clear for quite a while that Israeli Prome Minister Netanyahu simply doesn't have a "day-after" plan to administer Gaza after Hamas is defeated.

In the absence of a post-war plan, [US Secretary of State Antony] Blinken added, “Hamas will be left in charge, which is unacceptable. Or if not, we’ll have chaos, lawlessness and a vacuum that eventually will be filled again by Hamas or maybe something — if it’s possible to imagine — even worse.”

"Total defeat" of Hamas is a great idea in theory, but unworkable in practice. Hamas must be replaced with an effective government that can govern to provide what people there need. The piece here was written in May and is still true.

Not that Hezbollah's any better. During Israel's invasion of Lebanon both sides are violating the laws of war. 

 

 

Ukraine/Russia? There have been a few changes, but Russia continues to utilize its greater resources, both in military goods produced by Russia and its allies North Korea, Iran and to some extent from China and in manpower, mostly from the provinces as opposed to the Moscow-St. Petersburg region. Ukraine's invasion of Russia in the Kursk area should count as one of Putin's "red lines" that requires a nuclear response from Russia. As President Biden has provided Ukraine with more long-range missiles, along with a continued hesitancy to allow Ukraine to actually use those weapons, we have an interesting situation there.

Early on, when not many people had arrived yet.

As I pointed out to a person in an online conversation, an innocent person would seek a speedy trial so that he could go to thhe public as a cleared person. As Trump is clearly not innocent, he and his allies in the Judicial Branch have sought to delay his trials. The Supreme Court tossed a monkey wrench into these trials by declaring that Trump can't be prosecuted for official acts or for official communications. Naturally, they didn't go into detail as to what these were, but they went much further in defining official acts than was previously understood. Judge Chutkan and Special Counsel Smith appear to be ready to to define just what Trump can be charged with. They're trying to still not cross any boundaries that the Supreme Court has appeared to suggest. Of course, as Trump and his allies desire, any conclusion to his trial must take place after November's election.

 

Robin Rumsey

In their weekend round-up of political news for the week, TPM covers a Russian online version of the Washington Post (Russia has generally ramped up election interference efforts), how routine maintenance of voter rolls gives rise to comspiracy theories and how Melania Trump's description of Donald as a "family man" provoked a number of rebuttals from online progressives.

Haitian migrants in Springfield OH have been the target of toxic rhetoric by Senator Vance, Donald Trump and assorted wannabe Nazis.

As I've said, Trump is a wannabe fascist dictator.

“One rough hour. And I mean real rough, the word will get out and it will end immediately. End immediately. You know, it will end immediately,” — Donald Trump on the phony epidemic of crime by immigrants in 2024

Ruth Ben-Ghiat is a historian and commentator on authoritarianism and propaganda.  She comments here on how authoritarians like Trump really, really hate it when people make fun of them! Authoritarians "don’t mind being called evil, but being ridiculed is a different matter."

Facing towards the speaker.

Unfortunately, living in a "pro-life" state means living in a maternity care desert. "in 1,104 US counties, there is not a single birthing facility or obstetric clinician." That's out of 3,143 counties total.

RLGardner.net

Day 899 of war in Ukraine

So there are apparently no meaningful “red lines,” so why isn’t Ukraine given permission to use ATACMS missiles in Russian territory?

Russians attacking with drones instead of the usual missiles.

Identifying bodies from the supermarket in Kostiantinivka.

Ukraine has still not received clearance to use US missiles in Russia.

Kursk offensive by Ukraine into Russia appears to have been joined by second strike into Begorod oblast. Russia’s defenses once you break through the border area are quite weak.

General sense being chaos & abandonment [on Russian side] by Moscow. "I want to understand where our state is at all? Where is the administration?”

Russians describe military response to Ukrainian invasion “as a “counterterrorist operation,” giving them the same legal status as law-enforcement actions against Islamist extremist groups in the northern Caucasus.” Russia’s military is NOT in charge of counteroffensive against Ukrainians. Counteroffensive is handled by “the Federal Security Service, Russia’s domestic intelligence agency” FSB will loyally handle the job, but is unlikely to be successful.

Question as to how to secure border as conscripts are currently used.

Ukraine uses marine kamikaze drones to take out Russian naval targets.

Iran will be sending ballistic missile systems to Russia

https://balloon-juice.com/2024/08/10/war-for-ukraine-day-899-belgorod/

Day 892 of war in Ukraine

 

Ukraine wins first Olympic Gold medal of 2024 games in fencing! Ukrainian fencer Olga Kharlan defeated Russia’s Olga Smirnova, but refused to shake hands and was thus disqualified.

Russians commit utterly horrific war crime. Blogger assures us the image appears authentic, but we do not need to see it.

Woo hoo! Russians lose Kilo Class Submarine!

Also an S-400 air defense system not completely incapacitated, but badly damaged.

Zelenskyy says Ukraine needs to carry out long-range strikes against Russia. It needs to be able to hit missile launch sites.

Film on 95-year old woman who makes trench cakes for the troops.

Russian opposition figures urge that sanctions be lifted as they are hurting ordinary Russians. Problem: ordinary Russians are helping to maintain the war. Ukraine asks for acknowledgments that Russia is imperialistic and that they will denounce that in return. No, Putin is not the only driver of the war.

Crew of a T-80 tank.

More oil fields destroyed.

Secretary of Defense Austin seems exceedingly risk-averse. The inmates of Guantanamo were treated horribly, with torture, so they can’t be tried for crimes. They’re effectively serving life sentences in an extrajudicial manner.

https://balloon-juice.com/2024/08/03/war-for-ukraine-day-892-a-brief-saturday-night-update/

Day 887 of war for Ukraine

First Olympic gold medal for Ukraine goes to the fencer Olga Kharlan!

Russian drones are going after individual civilians in Kherson. About 50 civilians have died.

the situation in the Pokrovsk direction remains critical, and some areas of defense have started to collapse.

Commanders being threatened with dismissal.

US sends $200 million aid package.

Progress made in French rail saboteurs. Far-left French anarchists are the main suspects, but they’re looking at everyone. Too many attacks to be happenstance. This is a coordinated attack.

Tuareg rebels defeated Russian state-funded Wagner mercenaries, then took picture of themselves with a Ukrainian flag.

The Pokrovsk front is buckling.

Reserves are getting short, so units cannot be pulled out of the line for rest and relaxation. Good news is that Russians are also in poor shape.

Russia has accelerated its destruction of Ukraine’s front-line cities in 2024 to a scale previously unseen in the war using the glide bombs and an expanding network of airstrips

Russian boat with infantry hit by drone. No survivors.

...officials said the Russian government is engaged in a "whole-of-government" effort to influence the U.S. presidential election and that it favored Trump,

Iran is working for Democrats and against Trump.

West looks at Ukraine-Russia situation.

https://balloon-juice.com/2024/07/29/war-for-ukraine-day-887-russia-is-using-drones-to-hunt-civilians-in-kherson/

 

Day 872, War in Ukraine

As the blogger says “I have questions:”

Ballistic missiles and glide bombs hit Kharkiv.

Kremlin already exploiting attack on Donald Trump to increase chaos and suspicion. Russian TV: “Today Trump quite literally spilled blood for America.”

Like President Biden, President Zelenskyy shows some class and sympathy for Trump being shot at.

Ukraine signs more bilateral security agreements.

Film of “...the niece of Russian Defense Ministry head Andrey Belousov” urging him not to bomb the Okhmatdyt children’s hospital. Members of his family say that Natalia Vertinskaya is not related to Belousov.

51 Nobel laureates call for peace in Ukraine. Problem is that they’re making a general call to both sides. If Russia leaves Ukraine, the war is over, period. If Russian troops remain in Ukraine, the war will, at best, pause until Russia feels refreshed and relaxed and ready to start it up again. The appeal should be made exclusively to Putin. Instead, they’re “blaming the victim.”

Horrible things will happen if Trump wins in November.

“The special battalion ‘Shkval’, consisting of volunteer prisoners” successfully clears an enemy tree line.

The Battle for Novomykhailivka cost the Russians over 300 armored vehicles.

According to Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, Russia has lost almost 560k soldiers. Wounded comes to 1677k. Russia, according to Politico, lost 70k soldiers in just two months, the US lost 58k soldiers from 1955 to 1975, fighting in Vietnam. Where is the Russian peace movement?

Of course, we should be aware that a young Russian woman sent $30 to the Ukrainian military. She’s been sentenced to nine years in prison.

https://balloon-juice.com/2024/07/14/war-for-ukraine-day-872-glide-bombs-aimed-at-kharkiv/

 

Day 869 War in Ukraine

 

Since May 10, almost a thousand civilians have either died or have been wounded in Kharkiv.

US intelligence discovered Russian plans to assassinate a German industrialist who was actively supporting Ukraine. Russia has also been carrying out acts of sabotage across Europe. At what point does sabotage and undercover actions become warfare that demands an appropriate response? Further problem with an appropriate NATO response is: Will it deter future action or will Russia be encouraged to commit still more actions or will it start acting in a more restrained fashion?

Interesting. Russia is saying through false news sources “that the Americans are secretly hiring Latin American criminals to fight in Ukraine.”

Zelenskyy again asks that long-range missiles be used to attack targets in Russia. Russians, of course, warn the West against doing that.

Things are better on the battlefield than they were earlier, but Ukraine still has a ways to go.

“Ukraine is very low on ammunition for legacy Soviet systems, whereas Russian drone and missile production rates have increased significantly.” Glide bombs are an increasing problem.

Norway sends air defense system.

“Lithuania's support to Ukraine is long-term & amounts to €1 bn “

Canada, Denmark and the Netherlands all step up to deliver more to Ukraine.

Ukrainians describe being tormented by Russians while they were captives.

https://balloon-juice.com/2024/07/11/war-for-ukraine-day-869-russias-wetwork-program/

War for Ukraine Day 865

 

Hmm, a most interesting alliance.

Air raid alerts all over Ukraine.

Zelenskyy and the UK Secretary of State for Defence visit wounded troops in the hospital.

French left wing wins Parliamentary election. Heh! “split-screen of Team Democracy vs the far right.”

Story of a 102-year old French resistance fighter who was selected to carry an Olympic Torch. She’s unhappy about how much of the vote the far right was able to get.

Blogger: “anyone who tells me they’re not going to vote is if that’s the case then you need to read everything you can about the French partisan underground in WW II, the Bielskys, and Bernard Fall’s Theories of Insurgency and Counterinsurgency. Fall was a member of the French partisan underground.”

An Estonian soldier: “the window of opportunity for russia to achieve anything on the front in 2024 is steadily narrowing.” During Speaker Johnson’s blockade of Ukraine aid was Russia’s best opportunity. With aid now arriving, that window is shrinking.

Statistics on horrendous Russian losses. “Russia is strong but also rigid, and no one knows her breaking point — including Putin since his own people lie to him.”

The Ukrainian drone campaign is a thorn in Russia’s side.

A Russian milblogger examines his own social circle since the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Most have died or have been incapacitated.

Another Russian Su-25 jet shot down!

Film clip on how many Russian tanks remain. The easily-repaired ones are long since sent to the front. Those harder to repair were left behind, so it’s likely that their reserves will get more and more useless.

9k square meter ammunition depot set ablaze by drones. The ammo dump continued to detonate hours later.

https://balloon-juice.com/2024/07/07/war-for-ukraine-day-865-all-of-ukraine-is-under-air-raid-alert-russian-missiles-are-inbound/

War for Ukraine Day 860

 

For taking casualties back for identification and burial.

Zelenskyy discusses Viktor Orbán’s visit to Ukraine.

US supplying lots of air defense goods.

For there to be peace, Ukraine must gt back its 1991 borders and to join NATO to deter future attacks. For Zelenskyy, giving up any territory simply extends the war. Secretary of State Blinken says nothing about Ukraine being free of Russian occupiers. Being told Ukraine can never join NATO presents a real problem. Doesn’t that mean Russia can attack again whenever it pleases? Also, Putin is counting on things like Trump’s coming to power in the US.

Trump’s plans for “peace” are much worse than Biden’s as Trump is just straight-up about Ukraine needs to give up territory and to never join NATO. Neither Trump nor Speaker Johnson have any use for Ukraine.

Orbán recommends “peace” talks with Russia.

Erm, wasn’t that the problem at Pearl Harbor? That planes were just lined up nicely, just waiting to be bombed?

Russia stays on the offensive, making small advances.

Strike on Crimea.

“a detailed thread on Russian armor losses in Ukraine.” Armored transport vehicles are depleting quicker than tanks. Russia should start seriously running low on armored vehicles in 2025 or 2026.

https://balloon-juice.com/2024/07/02/war-for-ukraine-day-860-compare-and-contrast/

War for Ukraine Day 818

 

Tucker Carlson now has a show on “Russia 24.”

Kharkiv is being pummeled by missiles. Ukraine’s soldiers tell me that they cannot adequately fight back without striking inside Russia.” US refuses to permit Ukraine to strike targets inside Russia. We’re essentially asking Ukraine to fight with one hand tied behind its back.

Zelenskyy is getting impatient. Says weapons are arriving, but too late.

Small weapons deliveries have allowed the Russian foe to adapt to Western aid.

The Russian advance toward Kharkiv has slowed down. Detailed summation of what the advance has been able to achieve.

“Here is Tatarigami’s take on The Economist reporting above” What Russian strategy suggests is that they wanted to get within artillery rance of Kharkiv and to reduce the city.

Short film clip demonstrating effect of glide bombs.

Woo hoo! Another Russian ship, a Corvette, converted to a submarine!

Ukrainian naval drone launching unguided missiles in the direction of Russian positions on the Kinburn Peninsula, Mykolaiv/Kherson region.

Russian authorities have made a unilateral decision to change the sea borders of Russia with Lithuania and Finland in the Baltic Sea.

Now we wait to see what Lithuania and Finland do.

https://balloon-juice.com/2024/05/21/war-for-ukraine-day-818-kharkiv-is-bombarded-while-the-biden-administration-equivocates/

War in Ukraine 6May2024

 

Wow! Zelenskyy in Easter outfit! So rare to see him in anything but Army green. “We pray for all our cities and villages, that should feel the Lord’s grace, not the constant terror of evil, and which have black clouds hanging over them, and bombs and missiles coming from those who belong in hell, not in the Ukrainian sky.”

Russia hits Kharkiv with glide bombs, hitting the city center and apartment buildings. Sumy suffers massive fires.

Drones used to send Easter cakes to front-line troops.

A while ago, Russia was jamming GPS signals so that planes couldn’t safely land in the Baltic States. Seems that Russian sabotage is spreading. European intelligence agencies, especially those of Sweden, Germany and the Czech Republic, report an increase in Russian sabotage activity. “Russia has attempted to destroy the signalling systems on Czech railways, the country’s transport minister told the FT last month.” and “Putin is currently feeling “emboldened” and will seek to push lines as hard as he can in Europe”

Again, our blogger feels World War III began in 2007, it’s just mostly been a “non-kinetic” war. General Hodges examines things that the West fears about there being an active World War. First thing to understand is that deescalation has been tried and has decisively failed. Russia is “a militaristic adventurous regional power.”

The Russia Black Sea Fleet was dealt with, not through diplomacy, but by force. Force worked and that fleet is not a threat today. Let us not overstate Russia’s willingness to use nuclear weapons. NATO nuclear deterrence appears to be working fine.

Russia doesn’t ratchet down operations for Easter.

Pictures of what used to be the city center of Bakhmut.

Russians do their best to destroy n M1A1 Abrams tank. The tank went down fighting and “went out like a warrior!”

Russian approaching strategic highway.

Easter celebrated on the front lines.

Russian AFVs stored in an open field. The vehicles are more or less outdated and useless.

https://balloon-juice.com/2024/05/05/war-for-ukraine-day-803-russia-bombards-continues-its-bombardment-of-ukraine-despite-the-holy-day/

War in Ukraine 25Apr2024

France’s Macron defends Ukraine as being essential to Europe’s security. Russian pundit Solovyev “throws a tantrum” over what Macron has said.

Russia trying to destroy as much of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure as possible before US aid arrives.

Now Russia’s hitting railways.

Zelenskyy thanks everyone who has helped.

Piece on why Europeans are reluctant to part with Patriot missile systems. These systems take a long time to produce.

The House vote [to resume aid to Ukraine] stops the hemorrhage of US credibility that had thrown US allies into varying degrees of alarm and demoralized Ukrainians…

Is the aid package enough? Ehh, it’s a good start. Can they get another one through? Hard to say. Blogger feels Biden Administration is too “risk averse.”

“What is more, even the fresh infusion of weaponry will not wholly eliminate Russia’s advantage in terms of firepower.“ Ukraine’s ability to defend itself against assaults by air shrank during dithering by the House. It’s hard to make up for that as a great deal of infrastructure has been destroyed.

Dmytro Kuleba, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister, warns that “’the era of peace in Europe is over’ and that Kyiv would inevitably need more help to fight off Russia. … No single package can stop the Russians. What will stop the Russians is a united front of all of Ukraine and all of its partners.”

A Ukrainian veteran now living in Texas, warns that Russian propaganda can turn a country against Ukraine at any time. Ukrainians need to be aware of this. Russians use “disinformation, bribery, and the use of ‘useful idiots.’” Ukraine needs to localize weapons production.

The constant stress of living in wartime conditions.

Long video of a Russian armored assault on Krasnohorivka.

Murders committed by Russian soldiers who return from the war is over 100.

Petroleum tanks holding 200 liters each catch fire in Omsk (roughly 1k miles from Ukraine, just North of Kazakhstan).

https://balloon-juice.com/2024/04/25/war-for-ukraine-day-793-russia-continues-its-bombardment-of-ukraine/

War in Ukraine 18Apr2024

 

Ukrainian anti-aircraft gunner defending against drones.

Russian missile strike on Chernihiv.

It’s great that the Ukraine aid bill is FINALLY going to pass, but instead of simply passing the Senate bill, Speaker Johnson is making a number of very unhelpful changes to it. It’s completely unnecessary to be frugal and to try and save money. That’s the very LEAST of our concerns!

A Ukrainian explains that US aid is a matter of life and death.

CIA Director warns that Ukraine is in a very bad position.

Representative Greene wants the US to withdraw from NATO. Makes a number of other utterly bizarre proposals.

Poland causing trouble again.

Assassination plot foiled.

Czech President urges help for Ukraine.

““The West’s emphasis on escalation management has prolonged the war in Ukraine” permitting Russia to exercise a veto over NATO actions.

The alliance to protect Israel from Iranian air assault did not go unnoticed by Ukrainians. “This pattern of delays and half-measures shows no signs of changing.”

Elon Musk comes in for some deserved scorn. Starlink Is being used by Russians, though not through official, recognized methods.

After Russia launches a big June offensive, they’ll concentrate on the US elections.

Russia ramps up disinformation, falsely claiming Kharkiv faces Russian encirclement, urging residents to flee.

https://balloon-juice.com/2024/04/18/war-for-ukraine-day-786-the-butchers-bill-for-chernihiv/

War in Ukraine 5Apr2024

 

US sanctions are doing some good! An oil refinery was damaged and can’t be fixed without US parts. The damaged component was producing over 400k tons a month of gasoline.

“Today, 350,000 households in Kharkiv are without electricity.” A nuclear facility in Kharkiv was also endangered.

More “double tap” bombing. Three First Responders die.

NATO is 75 years old now.

“’We have assessed over the course of the last couple of months that Russia has almost completely reconstituted militarily,’ said Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell.” Russians have lost 315k soldiers, but defense spending is up 6% of National GDP and Russians have placed their economy on a war footing. China is helping them.

Good news: “armored losses are being replaced by civilian vehicles such as vans, pickup trucks, and other unarmored vehicles.” At a minimum, according to Oryx, which counts only verified losses, Russia has lost over 15k vehicles, which includes 2,856 tanks. Ukraine has also sunk 20 Russian ships, again, Ukraine doesn’t have a Navy.

Congressman Ted Lieu and many other American officials support Ukrainian strikes on oil refineries.

When towns are evacuated, older Ukrainians often stay behind. NPR looks at those who stay behind.

Putin doesn’t believe that there are radical Islamisms in Russia, their presence must be a Western plot!

Many more details about Havana Syndrome than was presented on 60 Minutes the other day.

https://balloon-juice.com/2024/04/04/war-for-ukraine-day-771-the-butchers-bill-from-kharkiv/

War in Ukraine 31Mar2024

 

Two-year anniversary of liberation of Bucha. A mass gravesite has been established.

Ukraine hasn’t fully moved to a Western calendar yet, so their Easter is 5 May.

The last piece of the two Donetsk provinces was Avdiivka, which makes that city quite important.

Ukraine’s largest gas storage location is in Stryi, in the Western-most province in Ukraine.

Russia is trying to wear down Ukrainian air defenses, power generation and transmission and their agricultural sector.

France will deliver hundreds of armored personnel carriers.

As the US Ambassador runs to the air raid shelter along with Ukrainians, US effectiveness ebbs. Knowing the Trump may win the 2024 election adds to the gloom. An examination of Trump’s impact on NATO and the defense of Ukraine.

There’s a longer discussion in regard to the fact that Trump is out of office yet is significantly affecting US foreign policy.

...

Grenell has been acting as a kind of shadow secretary of state

.The manner in which Russia has occupied Ukraine means that stopping the war does NOT mean stopping the killing of Ukrainians.

Russians have gained 250 square kilometers since the Republican-led House cut off aid.

Russia “suspects” Ukrainian head of security service played a role in Crocus City massacre and demands Ukraine turn him over. Ukraine refuses.

https://balloon-juice.com/2024/03/31/war-for-ukraine-day-767-russia-bombarded-ukraine-again-overnight/

Latest Ukrainian Update

 First whole part of this is on conspiracy theories about the Wagner Group's Prigozhin. Pretty wild stuff. 

Second part brings to mind a German word I learned a long time ago, schwerpunkt. It means focus of effort and is often the difference between success and failure. The invasion of France in 1940 was a marvelous example of a successful application of schwerpunkt. The German army focused upon the Ardennes (it was thought that armored vehicles couldn't penetrate the thick forests, oops!) and the German army stayed together until it hit the English Channel. The German army acted as a single armored fist that succeeded rather quickly.

The Soviet Union was NOT a good example. Der Fuhrer split up the invading army into three more-or-less equal groups and focused first on this area, then on that area, until winter caused the army to stop. The Stalingrad campaign was okay, but by then the army had been weakened, the Soviet army had regained a lot and the Germans really needed to account for the winter calling a halt to everything. 

In 2022, the Russian strategy of having four axes of advance showed rather quickly that it was simply too many axes. The Kyiv and Kharkiv axes were abandoned, and the Donbas and Crimean axes met and formed a "bridge" and then tried to advance Westward. 

According to the blogger, Ukraine has left trying to re-take Bakhmut and has focused all of its efforts to Melitopol in order to break that "bridge" between the Donbas and Crimea.  This approach is very heavily guarded but promises the biggest effect on Russian forces. 

Number of Russian tanks in Ukraine

 

The Russian army started the war in Ukraine with 3,300 tanks. Oryx counts absolutely certain losses and comes up with about 1,500 losses, 1,000 destroyed and 500 captured and put back into service by Ukraine. The Ukrainian General Staff comes up with 3,458 because their standard is “pretty sure.” There's no indication that Russia has a large number of new models rolling off the assembly lines, so how are there any tanks left on the Russian side?

Popular Mechanics says that Russia has a thriving tank industry that refurbishes old tanks. The T-62, the model was developed in 1961, is getting rebuilt and sent to the battlefield. The British Ministry of Defense estimates 800 T-62s have been refurbished and sent to Ukraine. .

How credible is Seymour Hersh?

 

Okay, had a problem with the reporting of Seymour Hersh. He said that the Navy doesn't have to report covert ops whereas the CIA does. The language from 50 USC 3093 states:

The President may not authorize the conduct of a covert action by departments, agencies, or entities of the United States Government unless the President determines such an action is necessary to support identifiable foreign policy objectives of the United States and is important to the national security of the United States, which determination shall be set forth in a finding that shall meet each of the following conditions:…" (emphasis mine)

In other words, Hersh is wrong on that. At the very least, the "Gang of Eight" would have to be notified. Yes, Congress must be told if ANY branch of the government carries out the kind of operation that Hersh describes.

Hersh tells us what his political view is by suggesting that the war will end when Zelenskyy is tired of causing the deaths of fellow Ukrainians.

Daily Kos has taken a look at Hersh’s claims (the story begins several paragraphs and tweets down). They note that the long-time and highly reliable fact-checking site Snopes has also examined those claims. An OSINT fellow (Open Source INTelligence) pursues Hersh’s claims in detail. Sorry, but I think Hersh has just lost it.

Peace proposals for Ukraine

Was just talking with some buddies about the war in Ukraine. They said that the US Peace Council has advocated peace talks between Ukraine and Russia. I then looked at various peace advocates. Russian diplomat Lavrov says that Russia and Ukraine were close to a deal in April, but Zelenskyy agreed with the US and Britain that the deal should not move forward. Found a very interesting paragraph (press people call this the “nut graph,” the paragraph that sums up the most important point in the piece).

Russia has repeatedly rejected Ukrainian and Western demands that it withdraw completely from Ukraine as a condition for any negotiations. US President Joe Biden has indicated he would be willing to talk with Putin if the Russian leader demonstrated that he seriously wanted to end the invasion.

It’s very difficult to see how any negotiations can even begin with Ukraine ceding any territory to Russia. That’s not a permanent or lasting peace as the war would simply continue once Russia had rebuilt its currently devastated army.

Is the possibility of nuclear war increasing? Actually, it’s decreasing. China has made it quite clear to Russia that they won’t put up with Russia using nuclear weapons. India has said the same. The US has also stated that it would respond to a nuclear launch by Russia with non-nuclear weapons.

Update: So if I were in Putin's position and wanted peace with Ukraine, how would I begin? I'd probably agree, in principle, that Russia must leave the territory of Ukraine. Russia's doing the exact opposite,  

"I think you only have to look at Putin's own words in a recent conversation with President Erdoğan of Türkiye in which he says unless and until Ukraine accepts the new territorial realities, as he put it, there's nothing to negotiate. In other words, unless and until Ukraine acknowledges and accepts the fact that the territory that Russia has seized by force, it's not getting back, there's nothing to negotiate. That of course is in and of itself a nonstarter," [Secretary of State Antony Blinken] added.

Amnesty Internation & Ukraine

 Reuters:

Agnès Callamard, Amnesty International's secretary general...called on the Ukrainian government to ensure that its forces were located away from populated areas or for all civilians to be evacuated from those areas first.

I dunno, that seems pretty difficult. Recall that Russia attacked Ukraine from several directions in February and that they’ve fired missiles so that they land all over the country. A real problem with the Amnesty report is that Russians hits civilian targets all the time. 

Balloon Juice blog:

Ukraine responds strongly to criticisms by Amnesty International.

Russian abuse of civilian populations (example: Bucha) means many Ukrainian civilians feel more secure being close to their military.

Amnesty deliberately ignored the opinions of their Ukrainian staff.

The Secretary General of Amnesty International gives a very highly defensive reaction to being criticized.

President Zelenskyy takes very strong issue with Amnesty’s claim. 

And also:  

Russians distributing weapons and ammunition among civilians in the city of Kherson, in violation of the laws of war.

 

The BJ piece also looks at: 

Russian spies look for missile targets in Ukraine.

Brittney Griner’s fate.